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Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."