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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to electrify a Labour conference demonstrating the party was falling out of love with its then leader. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats over the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he would later replace.

The Evolution of Stance & Settled Issues

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite survey data indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. While Europe may not be the central crisis in UK politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains measured in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which young people can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines are still in place, there are ways to work around them. One idea involves declaring the commencement of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts

Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea cautioning that a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. Firstly, he believes a customs pact is now much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.

An Alarming Document and Geopolitical Calculations

This strange and concerning document asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It includes a single mention of the UK, found on a proposal that the US government may interfere in British politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.

However, instead of deciding that this makes the US an undependable ally, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by risking fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation & The Echo of 2018

This situation returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not a pitch for the leadership but simply an effort to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a future race to replace Starmer, insist she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Danger and A Prudent Memory

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise for Starmer to recall the impact just a few words had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them personally, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.